{
  "video_id": "reddit_1vppvwz",
  "channel_slug": "singularity",
  "channel_handle": "r/singularity",
  "title": "Anthropic Researcher Sholto Douglas: Models Will Be Capable Of Automating 95% Of Computer Facing Jobs By 2028, But People Will Continue To Work Well Into The 2030's",
  "url": "https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1vppvwz/anthropic_researcher_sholto_douglas_models_will/",
  "external_url": null,
  "upload_date": "20260816",
  "published_at": "2026-08-16T06:48:20+00:00",
  "transcript": "Dario Amodei expects computer facing jobs to start being widely automated within the next 2-3 years, But Sholto Douglas implies that despite the fact that models will be capable of automating knowledge workers by 2028, widespread automation might not happen until several years after that.\n\nComputer Facing/Knowledge Workers represent about 33% of all jobs in the US. \n\n>Fundamentally it’s because we’ve wanted to be honest with people. Employment risk is the classic here. **I actually disagree with Dario on the pace.**\n\n>**I think it’s most likely that compute shortages, diffusion complexity, policy and unmet demand for services mean that even for years after we have models which could automate 95% of computer facing jobs (models will get there in 28), people will work at them (well into 2030s)**\n\n>But I do think we as a society should take the possibility far more seriously than we are now, and prepare contingency policies for what to do at various levels of unemployment (e.g. **you could imagine not letting profitable companies lay off more than 5% per year),** as well as METR style evals to measure progress on different job families so we have a clear picture. Our opinion has always been that we need to be straight up and honest with people.\n\nDo you guys agree that companies should be banned from laying off people to prevent the unemployment rate from going up? I think a better approach would be fat monthly government issued checks to people that are fired due to AI automation. \n\nSource: https://x.com/_sholtodouglas/status/2088649063185195258\n\n\n\n--- Top Comments ---\n\n\n[50 upvotes] I hate how narrow peoples vision is when they extrapolate out the future, you have to go wide as well as long, by doing so you get a fuller picture and no matter how I do it the outcomes are catastrophic.\n\nOne certainty Sholto does agree with Dario on is jobs will be replaced, ok yes extrapolate long and that number go up, but now extrapolate out wide. what happens in a broader sense when white collar jobs become automated. even if it starts off slowly, saay the 5% of jobs he proposes be the legal limit per year? These are mortgage paying jobs, tax paying jobs. We get mortgage defaults. How do the lenders react? it's clear right? they see the trend, they know more and more jobs will be automated over time, even 5% a year... believe me they know how quickly that will compound.... so? they stop lending, no more mortgages right? why would you lend 500k to someone over a period of 30 years when their job security over that same period is approaching 0%?\n\nok extrapolate wider, no more mortgages means no more house sales, house prices tumble, people end up in serious negative equity, your house that was worth 500k is now worth a fraction of it... but your mortgage is still.... 500k... mo\n\n[21 upvotes] Ahh, a future where your job is only safe if the memory supply is constrained. How quaint.\n\n[11 upvotes] Let’s say the government gives checks to everyone that gets laid off.\n\nWhat do they do with people that aren’t replaced, like electricians, plumbers, etc? Do they have to keep working and not get the government check? Do you think those people will be happy that computer workers get money for free now while they keep working?\n\nAnd where will the money the government is going to pay out come from?",
  "transcript_chars": 3327,
  "ingested_at": "2026-08-16T13:30:16.822928+00:00",
  "source": "reddit",
  "yt_meta": {
    "score": 81,
    "upvote_ratio": 0.86,
    "num_comments": 70,
    "author": "Neurogence",
    "is_self": true
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}